In our previous posting, we indicated that there could be a likely improvement in the 4th Qtr and it seems like our prediction was right. GDP grew by 7.8% for the year as recovery in industrial production and exports led to an increase in 4th Qtr growth of 7.9% that was slightly better than most economists were expecting. HSBC economists commented that the upside surprise in China’s fourth-quarter GDP data confirmed that the economy has officially exited its slowdown. Or has it?
Our research does support an improvement in metal prices but we are yet to see reduction in certain stockpiles coupled with a more robust buy side for commodities generally. Let wait and see how the year ends for the Chinese and if there will be a decisive improvement in policies after March.